While Jones' victory does have major implications for US politics, much of the media makes a mistake by taking the result of a slim margin and extrapolating it as a bellwether for the entire state or nation.Read More
A pretty amazing new study from Pew Research shows that the parties are fragile coalitions, full of very deep disagreement. This fragility means many very interesting things could happen in the future... and that your stereotypes of each party may not make sense.Read More
We've already talked at great length about political polarization in the US: why it's bad, where it comes from. It's a pretty bleak landscape to be honest. Culturally this is hard to change. Calling for civility won't work, because the incentives are wrong. But we've talked about ways to fix these incentives. They are structural changes.
Luckily, they're starting to happen. Let's take a look at Missouri.Read More
I've heard a few discussions that used the Overton Window as a theoretical tool to support certain ways of behaving politically. But do people really understand the Overton Window well enough to wield it wisely?Read More
I got to meet Pat Caddell, who has worked in presidential offices and campaigns since the Carter Administration. He has done a combination of personal interviews, polling, and soul-searching to get a sense of why Trump won the election when, in his words, Trump had no real strategy, few solid positions, and very little in the way of a campaign at all.Read More
Seth Stevenson of Slate wrote an article on Monday called "Don't Blame Voters for the Rise of Trump. Blame the Stupid Way We Vote." Slate isn't known for being particularly easy on the right-wing, so this is one of those "Only Nixon can open China" sorts of deals, and very much worth a read. But the axe I want to grind is that we can't take responsibility away from voters for who they ended up picking.Read More
It's been a historically crazy election year, and readers/listeners keep asking me, "what's going to happen this election cycle? What could happen?" So I decided to take a crack. I came up with some crazy scenarios just so we could see how it plays out. It'll be fun.Read More
So I think the common narrative about political bias is this: if your news is biased, they tell a story a certain way, or inject a lot of opinion into something. So you might be thinking of talk radio or podcasts or online articles that are telling you quite obviously, "here's what you should thing! So and so is terrible! Anyone that disagrees with me is an idiot!" That kind of stuff.
But you're probably pretty clever and you probably have some sense of when that's happening, even when it's people that you're prone to agree with. But I think the way that smart people develop political bias is more nuanced.Read More