Why are referendums ending up so different from how polls suggest?
From Brexit to the FARC peace deal, there have been some shockers in referendums: the polls have very much gone one way, and the results another.
So what the heck is going on? In this episode, Xander and Erik talk about how polling works, how it might be going so wrong, and what oddities are going on with direct democracy versus the representative stuff we’re used to.
Sources
- http://www.wsj.com/articles/on-colombia-peace-vote-pollsters-miss-again-1475524316
- http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/farc-peace-talks-drug-trafficking-uribe-nuclear-option
- http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21708281-no-one-wants-return-war-voters-have-blocked-path-peace-what-now?zid=305&ah=417bd5664dc76da5d98af4f7a640fd8a
- http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21708249-after-voters-reject-agreement-country-needs-political-accord-saving-colombias-peace?zid=305&ah=417bd5664dc76da5d98af4f7a640fd8a
- http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/wrong-again-poll-driven-wisdom-failed-in-colombia-where-next
- http://www.vox.com/world/2016/10/6/13175608/polls-colombia-farc-peace-deal-vote-wrong
- Spiral of Silence: http://noelle-neumann.de/scientific-work/spiral-of-silence/
- https://www.lawfareblog.com/colombias-brexit-vote
- The Shy Tory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
- http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/us/california-voter-initiatives.html?_r=0
- http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/10/second-presidential-debate-0
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