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  • Tristan, November 26, 2017 @ 6:58 am Reply

    Hi Erik and Xander. You ask, why does England have a multiparty system? Duverger’s law seems to demand it have a US style single party system. Actually, it’s the US system that is abberant. Most countries with first past the post, whether small like Trinidad and Tobago or large like India, have more than two parties that win seats.

    I’m currently reading a recent work by political scientists Matthew Shigart and Rein Taagepera which tries to derive voting patterns from election rules. They present a logical model, the seat product model, which predicts the effective number of seat-gaining parties, from the average district magnitude M (that is, the number of seats in the assembly divided by the number of districts – so 1 in england, maybe 4 in ireland, 150 in the netherlands) times the number of seats in the assembly S. I’ve only just started reading the relevant chapter, but they model it as MS^(1/6). They present a graph of this model which looks like a statistical regression so much that they repeated lily deny that it is.

    Take a look at their blog Fruits and Votes fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com

    So why is the US so strong two party? I’ve heard the rules about third party nominations in some states are unreasonably difficult. I doubt that’s all there is too it.

    • Erik Fogg, November 27, 2017 @ 12:38 am Reply

      Hey this is awesome–just what we’re looking for. Thank you. Got some reading to do 🙂

  • Chris Fairchild, December 6, 2017 @ 12:22 pm Reply

    Hi Guys,

    Really love the your podcast. As to the Lib Dems continuing to exist, I think Duverger’s law holds true at the constituency level in the UK. That is, the races in individual constituencies are usually between two parties who tend to crush the rest. Looking at the top 30 constituencies for Lib Dems votes only 5 have a difference between second and third place of less than 10,000 votes (which is around 15% of the total in each constituency).

    I think you see a similar pattern with the regional parties (excluding NI which is weird for reasons). We in the UK do seem to default to two parties when voting, just the choice of which two varies across the country.

    • Erik Fogg, December 6, 2017 @ 9:43 pm Reply

      Now that is really interesting. Thanks for the knowledge bomb 🙂

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    The primary process, the Electoral College and the Twelfth Amendment ensures presidential politics in America will always be your choice between the lesser of two evils.

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